Home SMARTPHONE How economic trends are shaping up post-Covid

How economic trends are shaping up post-Covid

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Several economic indicators are showing a marked improvement from recent lows, which suggests the economy is getting back on track.

ET Wealth provides a snapshot of how key economic trends are shaping up post-Covid.

The increase in GST collections reflects the higher levels of economic activity being undertaken and business picking up with the easing of various restrictions.

gst-collection

NOTE: At Rs 5.59 lakh crore, total GST collection during April-October 2020 is still 20% lower than the Rs 7.01 lakh crore collected in the corresponding period of last year. Source: CARE Ratings

  • October witnessed an all-time high in eWay bill generation

Number of eWay bills (641 lakh) generated last month were the highest in a month since the start of the eWay bill system. E-way bills represent movement of goods from one place to another after requisite tax payment.

e-way-bill

Source: Motilal Oswal Securities

  • Manufacturing index has climbed to its highest in a decade

Indian companies ramped up production at the strongest pace recorded since late-2007 as demand picked up.

PMI

Source: Motilal Oswal Securities


  • Automobile dispatches are at an all-time high

Auto sales (in terms of dealer dispatches) continued to improve in October 2020 as vehicle manufacturers hiked production in anticipation of strong sales during the ongoing festive season. Hyundai, Bajaj and Hero recorded highest ever sales in a month.

automobiles

NOTE: Retail sales (in terms of actual purchases) of automobiles for the month remain more than 20% lower compared to the corresponding month last year.


  • Sharp uptick in enrolments at EPFO

Number of new EPF subscribers increased from 1.85 lakh in April to 6.70 lakh in August and exits from the subscriber base declined by more than 50%, from 5.71 lakh to 2.46 lakh during this period.

EPFO

NOTE: EPFO payroll data points to recovery in job market, but figures are provisional and subject to change. Additions to payroll may not always reflect new jobs created, as some existing jobs get formalised with growth of smaller organisations. Besides, EPFO data completely ignores the informal sector. Source: EPFO


A healthy rise in exports coupled with easing of decline in imports saw the trade deficit fall since the turn of the year.

trade-deficit

NOTE: Exports during April-October 2020-21 have registered a decline of 19% over the same period last year. After 6% uptick in September, exports declined by 5.4% in October. Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry


  • Forex reserves surge to record high

A favourable balance of payments position—lower trade deficit and increased capital infl ows—have led to the build up in forex reserves in recent months.

forex


  • India Inc beats earnings and margins estimates

Companies’ profits grew 26% vs estimated -2.1% decline. Operating profits also came in above expectations while operating margins also continued to expand.

india-inc

NOTE: Profitability and margins have expanded partly because of fall in input costs and reduction in wages and administrative expenses. Revenue growth remains largely subdued.

Source: MOFSL | Above figures pertain to Motilal Oswal Securities coverage universe of stocks

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